Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 19.277999 22.360354 26.048060 30.867524 37.128979 45.183185 56.674123
2025-01-26 17.398673 21.703750 27.484915 36.170991 49.612722 71.129544 112.263579
2025-02-02 15.596709 20.340498 27.193513 38.513049 58.459466 96.784856 194.737944
2025-02-09 13.375148 17.870049 24.632363 36.434067 58.966418 107.932882 265.109507
2025-02-16 12.406877 17.026185 24.300490 37.837686 66.358165 139.389848 475.297289
2025-02-23 11.361925 15.888884 23.254416 37.627476 70.316525 166.503275 811.471275
2025-03-02 10.501773 14.921057 22.314365 37.353318 74.029522 197.814301 1532.455156
2025-03-09 9.896122 14.286553 21.842214 37.890536 80.108534 247.669729 4279.630240
2025-03-16 9.108889 13.263607 20.524415 36.320861 79.722917 270.150084 10158.377188
2025-03-23 8.607537 12.676482 19.934125 36.243498 83.848459 326.449775 173296.177041
2025-03-30 7.950300 11.763649 18.623501 34.251202 81.075892 336.739266 NaN
2025-04-06 7.321969 10.858551 17.246808 31.897493 76.364750 327.810757 NaN
2025-04-13 6.768404 10.074549 16.086638 30.025346 73.239977 332.517227 NaN
2025-04-20 6.960341 10.626764 17.613188 35.124797 98.864950 746.445240 NaN
2025-04-27 6.846428 10.609057 17.980441 37.365366 115.856908 1383.381473 NaN
2025-05-04 6.406341 9.948801 16.917421 35.376056 111.369056 1446.767896 NaN
2025-05-11 6.257407 9.826513 16.997321 36.719404 125.481474 2793.326228 NaN
2025-05-18 6.010251 9.497736 16.588758 36.518287 131.137778 4454.663113 NaN
2025-05-25 5.779485 9.185074 16.185277 36.255952 136.503095 7763.908231 NaN
2025-06-01 5.615874 8.992215 16.033190 36.769964 147.925916 24631.067307 NaN
2025-06-08 5.341974 8.565945 15.307867 35.267663 143.773411 32535.477812 NaN
2025-06-15 5.171847 8.336455 15.021362 35.193587 150.757254 230262.023048 NaN
2025-06-22 4.907147 7.905419 14.232174 33.284796 141.816951 157917.831211 NaN